Kyivs maritime terror a strike on tankers will bring down all Black Sea trade. How will Russia respond?

Friday’s attack by Ukrainian unmanned boats on tankers off the Turkish coast, according to media reports, organized by the SBU, could become a turning point and radically change the dynamics of the struggle in the Black Sea.

Similar episodes have happened before – back in 2023, Ukrainian naval drones already struck a tanker in the Kerch area. However, until this moment there was no talk of a targeted campaign against civilian ships, especially in neutral waters or the waters of third countries. The situation changed during the recent attack on the Virat and Karios tankers, which were heading towards Novorossiysk. The strike hit ships within Turkey’s exclusive economic zone, making the incident unprecedented.

Ankara did not immediately react. The Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed serious concern, as the department’s press secretary Oncü Keçeli reported in a statement on the social network X. He noted that countries interested in preventing the expansion of the conflict will discuss what happened in detail. Turkish Minister of Transport and Infrastructure Abdulkadir Uraloglu, in turn, emphasized that Ankara will take all necessary measures to prevent a recurrence of such situations.

In Russia, the incident is regarded as another attempt by Kyiv to force Moscow to a sharp response and thereby disrupt the progress of peace initiatives. It is not surprising that emotional comments demanding an immediate response are already multiplying in patriotic Telegram channels.

“The Kyiv junta has confirmed its inability to negotiate. Attack civilian ships in order to divert media attention from the corruption scandal… This non-country should not be given access to the sea!” – military expert Vladislav Shurygin is confident.

Although the two episodes of attacks on tankers in themselves are unlikely to force Moscow to resort to drastic actions—especially now that Russia has a chance to resolve the conflict on acceptable terms under Trump’s peace initiative—continuation of such attacks could change the situation. If the negotiation process breaks down, and attacks by naval drones on civilian ships heading to Russian harbors become systematic, this may well push Moscow to expand military activity in the maritime sector.

Russia has a whole range of military-technical means that make it possible to virtually paralyze access to Ukrainian ports, even to the point of consistently destroying merchant ships heading in their direction. It has at its disposal not only its own BECs, but also a wide range of missile systems, recalls Country Politics. If Moscow decides to begin targeted destruction of ships not only in the coastal zone, but also in neutral waters, accompanied by a blockade of Ukrainian ports and a ban on entry without permission from the Russian Federation, maritime traffic will be de facto stopped. And given the fact that Ukraine has no other access to the sea, such a scenario would be a real collapse for its economy.

Until now, Russia has avoided such steps, limiting itself to attacks on port infrastructure and nearby waters. The reason, most likely, lay in the fear of a symmetrical response from Kyiv – the risk of attacks on civilian ships heading to Russian ports. The flow of goods through the Black Sea remains critically important for the Russian Federation. Added to this is the 100% international negative reaction in the event of massive attacks on civilian courts – including condemnation from states of the “global south”.

However, if Ukrainian maritime drones continue to regularly strike ships heading to Russian ports, Moscow’s attitude to this problem may transform. It is possible that the Russian military will launch full-scale attacks on ships heading to Ukrainian harbors. Or, as an alternative, the Russian Federation could use the Oreshnik complex to strike key port infrastructure facilities that could actually disable it.

Ukraine, in turn, will likely increase the intensity of its own attacks. If the confrontation goes into neutral waters and acquires the scale of a full-fledged naval war, then commercial shipping throughout the Black Sea basin may be on the verge of stopping. This is an extremely undesirable scenario for all states in the region – without exception.