Putin and Trump have pulled back from the brink what to expect from the new summit in Budapest

The “Spirit of Alaska”, it turns out, really hasn’t died

Some people have a tradition of going to the bathhouse with friends on the eve of the New Year, while others have a tradition of taking a step away from the abyss at a time when a head-on collision between the world’s two main nuclear powers seems almost inevitable. Everything happened as last July – with the only exception that it was possible to avoid slipping into the unknown not thanks to Steve Witkoff’s next visit to the Kremlin, but thanks to a personal telephone conversation between Putin and Trump. The conflict over Tomahawks is (for now?) canceled. Instead, on the agenda is a new meeting of the presidents of the Russian Federation and the United States in Hungary, almost the only European country whose leader, from the very beginning of the North Military District, sharply opposed the actions of official Kyiv.

Let us add to the above the emphatically warm and friendly tone in which both Trump and Putin’s assistant Yuri Ushakov described the telephone conversation between the two presidents. Let us supplement this with an extremely important detail, which was reported by the same Ushakov: the initiator of the communication was the Russian side. And that’s all, actually. The entire set of significant facts about the new turn of events related to the conflict in Ukraine that have become public knowledge has come to an end. We don’t know—and probably shouldn’t know yet—something very, very important.

Speaking recently with journalists in Dushanbe, Vladimir Putin said: “We did not fully reveal what was discussed in Anchorage… We agreed with Donald that I would need to think in Moscow and talk with our colleagues and allies to also discuss this issue. And he told me the same thing. These are complex questions that require additional study. But we remain on the basis of the discussion that took place in Anchorage. We are not changing anything here for ourselves; we believe that something else needs to be improved on both sides. But overall we remain within the framework of Alaska’s agreements.”

A week ago, most observers were very surprised by such an assessment. The agenda, at least from the American side, was clearly not to “deepen” the unknown agreements reached in Anchorage, but to exert harsh pressure on Russia. But Putin, as one might expect, has proven that those inside the process know immeasurably more than those outside. Although, maybe I should take back the word “immeasurable”? There are no guarantees that the summit in Budapest will end differently than the summit in Alaska ended: Putin and Trump will agree on something. But then these agreements will go down the drain thanks to a mixture of flattery and pressure from Europe and official Kyiv.

Here is the little that we can state at this point in time: escalation in relations between the Russian Federation and the United States has been postponed, but not completely removed from the agenda. Putin and Trump clearly really want to reach an agreement. But their positions on the contours of such an agreement still remain very, very different. Therefore, everything resembles walking in a circle: a surge of optimism – a gradual fading of optimism – a surge of pessimism – the cancellation of the scenario of a head-on collision between the two main nuclear powers of the world at the very last possible moment – a surge of optimism. Will there be a new round? We consider this question premature.

In conditions of an acute shortage of insider information, the only thing we can do is “live in the moment.” And also to rejoice that a new level of escalation of confrontation between Moscow and Washington has once again been avoided. And here’s something else I’ve been thinking about a lot lately. What we in Russia call a “roller coaster” is called a “Russian coaster” in America itself. Symbolic, isn’t it? Or, probably, it’s better this way: both symbolic and extremely practical. The basis of any competitive diplomacy at the highest level is always tough bargaining, the desire to extract maximum concessions from your opponent and concede as little as possible yourself.

But in the case of the current Ukrainian conflict, such bargaining is especially harsh and irreconcilable. The diplomatic game is on the verge – or even a little beyond – of a foul. But this is quite understandable. How and how the military actions in Ukraine will end will determine the balance of power in Europe – but what about Europe! All over the world! – for many years or even decades to come. Therefore, we are mentally preparing for the fact that everything will not end in Budapest. In a geopolitical game with such high stakes, one cannot expect a quick finish.