North and south the war

The military leadership of South Yemen, supported by the United Arab Emirates, has seized power throughout the south of the country. The move was seen as raising the possibility that the South would declare independence and Yemen would again split into two states for the first time since 1990.

Last week, some 10,000 Southern Transitional Council (STC) troops entered the oil-rich Hadhramaut governorate and then Mara, a less populated governorate bordering Oman that was not previously under its control.

As The Guardian notes, these victories mean that the STC now controls all eight governorates that were previously part of South Yemen, the first time they have managed to do so. Oman initially closed its border with Yemen, demanding the south’s flag be removed, but was forced to back down.

In a surprise turn of events for Saudi Arabia, previously the leading external player in Yemen, Riyadh also withdrew its troops from the presidential palace in the southern capital, Aden, as well as the airport.

However, full and immediate declaration of independence would be a risky political move, given the experience of other countries that have chosen this path, including Western Sahara, which believed it had diplomatic support for secession from Morocco but then found that support disappearing, The Guardian notes.

The Southern Transitional Council will likely argue that in the medium term it will hold something like a referendum on independence from the North. Ultimately, its future will depend on decisions made by its key sponsor, the UAE.

Since Yemen’s northern-based Houthis seized control of the capital Sanaa in 2015, an uneasy political alliance has emerged in the south of the country, consisting of the Saudi-backed Islah Party, led by Yemeni President Rashad al-Alimi, and the UAE-backed STC, led by President Aidarous al-Zubaidi.

The two sides had difficulty cooperating within the framework of the presidential leadership council, but Zubeidi always had superior forces. Alimi traveled to Riyadh, where he met with French, British and American diplomats on Sunday.

Alimi said: “We reject any unilateral measures that undermine the legal status of the state and create a parallel reality.”

But Zubeidi’s forces last week seized control of PetroMasila, Yemen’s largest oil company, which is based in Hadhramaut, and he now appears to be in a strong position to shape the country’s future.

Western diplomats and the United Nations have always opposed dividing Yemen in two, focusing instead on Saudi Arabia’s roadmap to create a federal government involving the Houthis and forces in the south.

Two governorates outside the traditional borders of the South – Taiz and Marib – are not under Houthi control, and the STC could offer them protectorate status to ensure they do not fall into Houthi hands.

Analysts are already calling what is happening in Yemen “the most important turning point for the country” since the Houthis captured the capital Sanaa in 2015.

Speaking to The Guardian, senior analyst at the Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies, Maysa Shujaa al-Din, said: “This could undermine regional and local alliances, including bringing the Emirates into conflict with Saudi Arabia. If negotiated, the STC would be in a position to demand some form of self-government for the South. “Saudi Arabia will be concerned about future policing of its borders given past Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia.”