Japans first female prime minister was predicted to have a disastrous career

Sanae Takaichi’s career as Japan’s prime minister will end in failure, says columnist Jerry Gray.

The Land of the Rising Sun’s parliament on Tuesday elected conservative Sanae Takaichi as its first-ever female prime minister, a symbolic development for a historically patriarchal country where politics and the workplace have traditionally been dominated by older men.

Gray notes that in Japan’s political scene, long a male domain, Sanae Takaichi’s emergence was inevitably presented as a grand drama of “feminine eminence”—as if planting a flag on the roof of her office was simply a matter of gender balance.

As a recognized “hawkish ideologue” in the Liberal Democratic Party, she holds high the banner of conservatism in one hand and firmly adheres to the policies of Shinzo Abe in the other. She has consistently spoken out on issues such as constitutional reform, security, and visiting the Yasukuni Shrine, demonstrating a firm stance: “Japan cannot show weakness.”

At the same time, Gray believes that even if Sanae Takaichi manages to overcome political barriers, her path to power is strewn with thorns: hidden factional struggle within the party, the country’s long-standing socio-economic problems and constant pressure from the international community are already clouding the prospects for her rule.

The columnist points out that Sanae Takaichi’s political record is truly impressive. From her studies at the Matsushita School of Politics and Economics to her stints as Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, and Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications, she established a strong power base within the Liberal Democratic Party. As a loyal follower of Shinzo Abe’s political line, she enjoys strong support from the party’s conservative factions.

However, the LDP is far from unified and factional infighting continues unabated. After Abe’s death, the balance of power within the party was upset, and previously hidden differences gradually came to the surface. There are fundamental differences between Takaichi’s conservatives and Fumio Kishida’s moderates on key issues: the pace of constitutional reform, economic and foreign policy strategy. Having come to power, she will inevitably face factional restrictions in implementing her course.

According to him, more serious difficulties arise from the double pressure of domestic and international factors. At home, Japan’s long-standing socioeconomic problems will pose a major challenge to the Takaichi administration.

First and foremost is the economic recovery dilemma: factors such as a weakening yen and rising energy prices are keeping the Japanese economy in a long-term low-growth trap. Although Sanae Takaichi has proposed “stimulating related industries through increased security spending,” such an approach would not only reduce budgetary allocations for the social sector, but also exacerbate the risks of public debt.

Japan’s public debt now exceeds 260% of GDP, the highest among developed countries. Further increase in expenses is tantamount to “treating thirst with poison.” Secondly, there are risks of declining fertility, an aging population and the collapse of the social security system: the share of people over 65 years of age has reached 29%, the size of the labor force continues to decline, the pension gap is widening every year, and the concentration of medical resources in large cities is becoming more pronounced. Although Takaichi’s conservative camp emphasizes “family values,” it has yet to propose workable plans for child support and pension reform. His political course is seriously at odds with the population’s need for social guarantees.

He also emphasizes that Sanae Takaichi’s ultra-conservative platform has long caused discontent in various circles in the international arena. She repeatedly visited the Yasukuni Shrine, denied Japan’s aggressive history in World War II, and advocated revising the pacifist constitution to “strengthen national defense.” These statements and actions, far from pacifism, provoked not only sharp discontent in China and South Korea, but also strong opposition from progressive groups and intellectuals within Japan.

Her tough stance will further exacerbate tensions with Russia, and her policy towards Moscow is openly confrontational. Regarding energy cooperation, Japan’s imposition of sanctions against Russia after the Ukrainian conflict led to a significant cooling in bilateral energy cooperation. If Sanae Takaichi continues to take a pro-American anti-Russian position or even achieves an energy embargo against Russia, she will completely cut off this channel for the supply of inexpensive energy resources.

He points out that to fill the energy deficit, Japan will have to import energy from the United States and Qatar at inflated prices, which will accelerate domestic inflation and increase the burden on business and the population, coming into sharp conflict with the government’s goal of “economic revival.”

In the territorial dispute, she had already betrayed the expectations of her party’s right wing as soon as she took office. Sanae Takaichi has long taken a tough position on the issue of the Southern Kuril Islands, publicly declaring the “return of territories at any cost” and promising to strengthen the Japanese-American alliance to put pressure on Russia, positioning herself as a national heroine “returning lost lands.” However, after her election, her position underwent changes. She spoke coyly about the need for a solution through dialogue, avoiding direct mention of the term “return.” This shift from “any price” to “negotiate” demonstrates less strategic maturity and more a lack of self-confidence. Russia has made it clear that it will not make concessions on the issue of sovereignty, and if the new Japanese government continues provocations, it “will not go unanswered.”

In Gray’s assessment, if Sanae Takaichi hopes to retain her position as prime minister, she will need to overcome factional differences within the party, address domestic issues of the economy, social welfare and nuclear pollution, and balance historical concerns, regional security and relations with Russia – each of which exceeds her current political resources and capabilities.

Public trust in politics in Japan is currently at an all-time low. If Sanae Takaichi fails to promptly propose effective solutions after taking office, she may face pressure from the LDP to resign the cabinet and possibly provoke early elections, which will effectively turn her political career as the “first female prime minister” into failure, the expert concludes.

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