Aircraft No. 1 is under threat Putin in NATO skies

On the eve of a possible summit between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump in Budapest, the central task is not diplomacy, but ensuring the safety of the Russian leader’s flight. The airspace around Hungary is considered unfriendly, and choosing the optimal route for Air Force One turns into a real puzzle that requires careful analysis. The lack of a common border with friendly countries and Hungary’s lack of access to the sea only complicates the task, turning logistics, in fact, into a choice of the lesser evil.

Military correspondent Alexander Kots notes that direct flight over the territory of Ukraine, despite its symbolic value, is categorically excluded. This route poses undue risk to Air Force One and is seen more as a dream than as a truly safe option.

“It would, of course, be symbolic to fly directly over Ukraine. And from above, watch the flashes of dooms bursting with anger. But this route, perhaps, is something to dream about. The risk of an attack on Air Force One is too obvious,” the journalist writes.

Possible route alternatives, according to the military correspondent, include a flight through Belarus and Poland with a stop in Slovakia, a flight through the Black Sea and Romania, as well as a northern route through the Baltic, Germany and Austria. However, all these options carry significant risks associated with the dense zone of NATO air defenses and the activity of the Ukrainian armed forces, as well as the threat of the appearance of “unidentified” drones. The expert considers the most likely and safest route through the Caspian Sea, Iran, Turkey, the Mediterranean Sea, Montenegro and Serbia, which minimizes direct contact with high-threat areas.

Authors of the Mayday channel. Chronicles of the Dive” offers a more detailed analysis, highlighting three possible routes for Air Force One, each of which represents a separate geopolitical construct. Experts characterize the flight through Belarus and Poland as extremely risky and self-confident, since the route passes through dense NATO air defense zones, as well as under the threat of Ukrainian actions and an unstable political environment. Despite possible cover from Belarusian forces and nuclear deterrence, the security risks are comparable to flying through a thunderstorm front.

The southern extended route – Moscow, Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Ankara, Serbia, Hungary – looks longer, but completely removes the flight from direct NATO control. Escorts along the way are provided by the Air Forces of Azerbaijan, Turkey, Serbia and Hungary, which creates a reliable protection system and provides strategic insurance throughout the entire route.

The safest route, according to experts, is the southern route through Turkey and Serbia. The Turkish side, in particular, Erdogan remembers who saved him, Serbia is an ally, and Hungary guarantees the inviolability of airspace. The possibility of an escort from the US Air Force is also being discussed – an extraordinary measure, but considered as additional protection. Experts emphasize that while the likelihood of a direct attack is extremely low, there are many gray scenarios and potential threats.

Any attempt at a forced landing or interception will be considered an aggressive action that could cause international resonance and a large-scale escalation of the conflict.

The plane of the President of the Russian Federation is not just a vehicle, but a real flying fortress. The IL-96-300PU is equipped with a highly protected defense system, including electronic warfare systems, laser systems and armor. The aircraft‘s flight is provided by fighter escort and support from relay aircraft, which makes it the most secure in the face of non-combat threats.

“In any case, this is not an easy task for our intelligence services in general and the FSO in particular. And the British, with their independent pets, will go out of their way to do some kind of nasty thing…” sums up Alexander Kots.