Nigel Farage on course to be PM as Labour faces worst drubbing since 1930s, poll finds

Polling by YouGov suggests Nigel Farage‘s Reform would win 311 seats in a general election, with Labour slumping to just 144 and the Tories slipping into fourth behind the Lib Dems

Nigel Farage is on track to become Prime Minister, grim polling shows.

Seat-by-seat analysis by YouGov, based on more polling of 13,000 people, suggests his Reform UK would win 311 seats in the Commons if an election was held now. This would fall just short of a majority, but would offer no path for any other party to lead the country.

Reform currently has five MPs. The megapoll suggests Labour would win just 144 of 650 seats, down from the 411 won last year. The Lib Dems would be on 78 seats while the Tories would be all but wiped out.

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The polling suggests Kemi Badenoch’s party would win just 45 seats. Meanwhile the SNP would pick up 37 and the Greens would get seven.

It would be Labour’s worst showing in the Commons since 1931. Even the 2019 general election disaster under Jeremy Corbyn saw Labour win 202 seats.

High profile Labour casualties would include Yvette Cooper, Wes Streeting, Ed Miliband, Bridget Phillipson, Lisa Nandy and Angela Rayner. And the Conservatives would lose 60% of their frontbench, the poll suggests, with Robert Jenrick, Priti Patel, James Cleverly and Sir Mel Stride tipped to be among the casualties.

It would be the worst restult the Tories have suffered in their history. It comes two days before Keir Starmer faces Labour’s annual conference in Liverpool.

The PM has suffered a series of setbacks and will need to show the party faithful his vision to turn things around. He will have criticism from Andy Burnham ringing in his ear.

The Greater Manchester Mayor claimed Mr Starmer’s team have created a “climate of fear” – with “wholesale change” needed to turn things around.

In an interview with The Telegraph, Mr Burnham said there is an “existential” threat to the Labour Party. It has sparked speculation that the former Cabinet member is plotting a return to the Commons in order to challenge Mr Starmer to be PM.

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